- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- A Breather for the Eurozone as Inflation Hits Two-Year Low
- Germany's September CPI Report: A Clearer Picture of Inflation Trends
- US Manufacturing Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Volatility in August
- The ECB Prepares to Address Excess Liquidity Through the MRR
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Chinese CPI Trying to Buck the Deflation Trend
- Energy Prices Rise but the Core Disinflationary Trend is Maintained in September
- PPI's Quiet Rise and the Energy Elephant in the Room
- Small Businesses Grapple with Inflation and Financial Strain in September
- A Wacky September Jobs Report Shows Strong Labor Market
- A Look at the Fragile US Labor Market Ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls Report
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
Recovery Continues, but Delta Looms
August 08, 2021
The Week Behind (Aug 2nd - Aug 6th)
Last week was PMI week revealing the state of the global recovery in July. Developed nations in the US and Europe saw manufacturing and service activity growth peaking in Q2 2021. There, robust growth continued in July but was slowed slightly by supply constraints and surging input prices. Growth slowed even more in Asian nations where COVID was making a comeback. The chart below shows how vaccination rates have shielded economies from restrictions that weigh on manufacturing. The same narrative remains: herd immunity through immunization is the only way to get back to economic normality.
Countries in the bottom left corner weighed on the JPMorgan Global Composite PMI which fell to 55.7 in July from 56.6 in June. Germany, Spain, and the US were bright spots offset by slow growth in China, Brazil, and Russia and contraction in Japan and Australia. Despite the Delta variant rising in July, output from the Tourism & Recreation sector led all 21 sectors as reopening effects continued to bolster economic growth. Notably, new order growth trumped output growth in the Machinery & Equipment, Automobiles & Auto Parts, and Chemicals sectors. The Metals & Mining sector was pretty much flat. In Q3 2021, global supply chains will be playing necessary catch-up with the reopening economies. Developed economy central banks will be watching with much anticipation, maintaining accommodative policy to allow this to happen while developing economy central banks tighten to cool adverse pricing affects. It is a fragile balancing act that will define what "transitory" means for inflation.
Not only was it PMI week, but the jobs report for July also came out with a very positive 943,000 jobs added. The unemployment dropped to 5.4% (down -0.5%) and total unemployed persons fell -782,000 to 8.7 million. A majority of the drop in the unemployed were temporary layoffs which now sit at just 1.2 million, just 489,000 above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that most of the easy job gains that were a result of restrictions easing. Could we see some reversal here in Q3 if the Delta variant continues on its current trend? It seems unlikely. Restrictions will likely be directed towards the unvaccinated which would allow vaccinated workers and consumers to continue as normal. Hopefully, the number of unvaccinated individuals drops in the next two months allowing the economy to return to normal for everyone.
Going forward, eyes are fixated on where the labor market will go from here. The Fed has maintained that full employment is its main objective in determining the course of monetary policy as it continues to label the current movement in inflation as "transitory." Where is there slack to get to that level of full employment? Right now, in leisure and hospitality. The sector added 380,000 jobs and is still off February 2020 levels by 1.7 million (even farther off what the sector would be if employment grew at long-term growth rates). These jobs also go towards lower skilled, lower income workers, those that took the hardest hit during the pandemic. Since it was most sensitive to the effects of COVID-19, it would make sense that it be a good general indicator about whether the labor force has shrugged off the pandemic. It would also be the first sector to feel the effects of restrictions from the Delta variant.
Chart of the Week
Supply chain issues persist in metals and machinery. The total level of unfilled orders in these industries vs total shipments is elevated by historical standards. However, it is still below the peaks experienced during the Global Financial Crisis and the beginning of the pandemic.
The Week Ahead
Next week is a big week for inflation. A whole host of nations including the US will report CPI and PPI for the month of July. In addition to that, the JOLTS report will show how job openings are moving off of its record levels. At the moment, the forecast sees openings rising even higher. The equity market remains teetering at elevated levels, but economic news might not be as much of a factor as the Delta variant headlines.