Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
Jacob Hess
August 24, 2023
- UK
- GDP
Since writing about my initial thoughts on UK weakness in Q3 earlier this week, further data has come out that aligns with the view that there will be a contraction this quarter.
- The Flash S&P Global UK Composite PMI came in much lower in August at 47.9, down from 50.8 in July. This is a 31-month low and features the sharpest decline in new orders since November 2022. The manufacturing sector weakened further to a 39-month low of 42.5 reflecting the weakness seen in the CBI Industrial Trends survey.
- Speaking of CBI surveys, the Distributive Trades survey for August saw the lowest Retail Sales index since March 2021 at -44%. Orders placed with suppliers remained sharply low at -37% which meant wholesale volumes continued to fall at -23% (down from -9% in July).
Once again there is more data to come, but it is looking increasingly likely that the UK will contraction by a low single digit rate in the third quarter. This will push the Bank of England towards a pause if it can find better inflation data.
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