- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- A Breather for the Eurozone as Inflation Hits Two-Year Low
- Germany's September CPI Report: A Clearer Picture of Inflation Trends
- US Manufacturing Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Volatility in August
- The ECB Prepares to Address Excess Liquidity Through the MRR
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Chinese CPI Trying to Buck the Deflation Trend
- Energy Prices Rise but the Core Disinflationary Trend is Maintained in September
- PPI's Quiet Rise and the Energy Elephant in the Room
- Small Businesses Grapple with Inflation and Financial Strain in September
- A Wacky September Jobs Report Shows Strong Labor Market
- A Look at the Fragile US Labor Market Ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls Report
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
Home Prices Fly in 2021
February 22, 2022
The S&P Global Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported a 18.8% YoY gain in December which was the same as was reported in November. The levelling off in the annual gain came after the index decelerated in the 2nd half of 2021 from a record high pace recorded in July. The 10-City and 20-City composite indexes both saw monthly gains over 1% and acceleration in their annual gains (up to 17.0% YoY and 18.6% YoY respectively). In the end, these gains make for the strongest calendar year price growth on record.
The FHFA also reported strong price growth of 17.5% YoY in November after a monthly gain of 1.1%. While the monthly gain was well above the average gains seen in the last 20 years, it was a deceleration from earlier in 2021. FHFA senior economist Will Doerner suggested that "the data indicate a pivot." In reality, housing demand is likely not receding, but rather potential homebuyers are becoming more hesitant to accept rising prices. Regardless, all nine census divisions in the US saw price growth above 13% YoY and above 1% MoM in November.
The past two years have been wild for the real estate market with a combination of supportive fiscal and monetary policies and an unprecedented public health situation. Low rates and some extra cash convinced homebuyers to move forward with purchases in late 2020, and many others took advantage of new remote jobs to relocate to more desirable locations. Existing home sales jumped to 5.64 million in 2020 and to 6.12 million in 2021. The surge in demand was met with a squeeze in supply as H2 2021 brought about shortages in building materials that pushed prices higher. As a result, inventories dropped to record low levels, 880,000 at the end of 2021.
Here we are in the real estate market in 2022, and suddenly it feels like there are many reasons for house price growth to struggle. Inflation is almost certainly going to cause a sharp Fed tightening cycle. Home prices are at record highs, and the anticipation of supply chains reconnecting could shade inventory expectations more optimistic. How many homebuyers that would have bought in 2022 made a decision to buy in 2020-2021? These questions suggest deflationary answers, but it almost certainly won't lead to a decrease in home prices in 2022, rather just a slower pace of growth.
We'll be keeping a close eye on the Case-Shiller indexes and the FHFA reports this year, especially in Q2 when interest rate expectations start to shape up as the Fed begins guiding its intentions on rate hikes for the rest of the year. The price of credit will be the main driver of demand. On the supply side, inventory should start to recover once materials become less scarce. Construction companies will be looking to build and sell at these prices, especially given the right conditions.