Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
Euro Area Trade: July 2023
Jacob Hess
September 15, 2023
- EconoBrief
- Euro Area
Euro Area Trade
9/15/2023 (July 2023)
€6.5 bil (-€18.1 bil MoM)
Below Expectations
Highlights
| Exports | -9.7% MoM |
| Imports | -3.5% MoM |
The euro area trade surplus fell by -€18.1 bil to just €6.5 bil in July. Exports crashed on the month, down -9.7% MoM, which caused the annual change in exports to turn negative, from 0.3% YoY in June to -2.7% YoY in July. Imports also fell but to a lesser extent, down -3.5% MoM. Imports from outside the euro area continued to trend sharply lower for the year, down -18.2% YoY. Trade within the euro area was also very weak, falling 4.8% MoM and -7.9% YoY. Weaker imports and exports of energy primary goods are the main reason for the slowdown in trade, down -28.1% and -22.6% in the current YTD period vs the previous YTD period. The trade balance is also suffering from a slowdown in the increase of exports of manufactured goods, up 5.2% YTD in July vs up 5.8% YoY in June.
The sharp decline in exports is a bad sign for growth in the euro area in Q3. The trade balance has been bouncing from a deep deficit ever since August 2022. This has mostly been a result of lower energy import more than anything. The recently recovered euro area trade surplus is now potentially in danger.
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