Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- A Breather for the Eurozone as Inflation Hits Two-Year Low
- Germany's September CPI Report: A Clearer Picture of Inflation Trends
- US Manufacturing Demonstrates Resilience Amidst Volatility in August
- The ECB Prepares to Address Excess Liquidity Through the MRR
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Chinese CPI Trying to Buck the Deflation Trend
- Energy Prices Rise but the Core Disinflationary Trend is Maintained in September
- PPI's Quiet Rise and the Energy Elephant in the Room
- Small Businesses Grapple with Inflation and Financial Strain in September
- A Wacky September Jobs Report Shows Strong Labor Market
- A Look at the Fragile US Labor Market Ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls Report
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
EU Economic Sentiment: September 2023
Jacob Hess
September 28, 2023
- EconoBrief
- Euro Area
EU Economic Sentiment
9/28/2023 (September 2023)
92.8 (-0.4 pts)
In-Line
Highlights
| Consumer Confidence | -18.7 (-1.6 pts) |
| Employment Expectations Indicator | 102.4 (+0.6 pts) |
In September 2023, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the EU slightly increased, dropping by -0.4 points to 92.8. On the other hand, the Employment Expectations Indicator (EEI) showed a positive trend, rising in both the EU and the euro area. The decline in the ESI was largely attributed to a significant drop in consumer confidence, especially in Spain and Italy, while France saw an improvement. Industry confidence remained stable, but consumer confidence saw a notable decline, down -1.6 pts to -18.7, due to increased pessimism about financial futures and the broader economic situation. There was also an increase in consumers’ selling expectations over the next 12 months, bring that index to the highest since April. The EU Economic Uncertainty Indicator rose in September, up 1.6 pts to 21.1, indicating heightened uncertainty among managers in various sectors and consumers regarding their future financial situations.
It is fully expected for economic sentiment to continue to decline in the EU through the rest of 2023, and the downtrend should be gradual like the the September move. The ESI is now back toward the October 2022 near-term low of 92.9 and with good reason. High interest rates are making their impact across both consumers and businesses. With a slight increase in selling price expectations, likely caused by energy prices, the ECB will make sure the full force of the impact of rates is felt.
© MTS Insights 2023