Commentary Directory

Australia NAB Business: September 2023

Jacob Hess
October 09, 2023

Australia NAB Business Survey

10/9/2023 (September 2023)

11 (-3 pts)


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Business Confidence Index 1 (0 pts)
Employment Index 8 (-2 pts)
Final Products Prices 1.0% QoQ (prev 1.7% QoQ)

The NAB Business Survey indicates a slight dip in activity for September but overall conditions remain above average. Capacity utilization is high and forward orders are gradually improving, although still low for retail. Business confidence is stable and less pessimistic than before. On the inflation front, there are signs of easing; labor cost growth has halved and purchase cost growth has also declined, although both remain high. Despite this, Q3 CPI is expected to show strong inflation, driven by energy, rents, and services. However, the easing of some cost pressures in September offers a glimmer of hope for future inflation trends.

From NAB

Australian business confidence remained broadly stable in September as they also reported a slight decline in current conditions. All of the subindexes eased including a slight drop the employment index, down -2 pts to 8. New orders, inventories, and exports are all basically frozen. As a result, inflation is easing according to the survey’s questions on labor and input costs. All signs point to a slowdown in business capacity growth in Australia. Bad news for the economy, but good news for the Reserve Bank of Australia which is considering whether to maintain its pause in Q4.