Inflation Barometer
Tracking US inflation indicators
The inflation barometer is a view of four indexes that track a collection of inflation indicators across reports. The indexes are broken down into different categories: general, energy, food, and expectations. They track the average number of standard deviations indicators are from their 20-year averages. If data does not exist for an indicator in a given month, the most recent reading is used. Values that have been rolled forward are indicated with a gray background in the data table.
This table only shows the last five months with all Inflation Barometer indexes available.
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation: General | 0.41 | 0.21 | -0.0 | -0.02 | 0.03 |
| Inflation: Energy | -0.24 | -0.59 | -0.76 | -0.48 | -0.12 |
| Inflation: Food | 0.32 | 0.02 | -0.11 | -0.05 | -0.03 |
| Inflation: Expectations | 1.22 | 1.07 | -0.06 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
Values that have a gray background have not been updated yet are forward filled using previous data.
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| Indicator |
|---|
| Core CPI |
| Core PCE Price Index |
| Core PPI |
| Core Sticky CPI |
| Core Import Price Index |
| Core Export Price Index |
| Prices Paid (Dallas Fed) |
| Prices Paid (NY Fed) |
| Prices Paid (Philadelphia Fed) |
| IMF Global Commodities Price Index |
| CPI: Energy |
| PCEPI: Energy |
| PPI: Energy |
| Import Price Index: Fuels |
| Export Price Index: Fuels |
| Monthly WTI Price |
| Monthly Regular Gasoline |
| CPI: Food |
| PCEPI: Food |
| PPI: Foods |
| Import Price Index: Foods |
| Export Price Index: Foods |
| 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate |
| UMich Inflation Expectations |
| 1-Year Expected Inflation |
| 10-Year Expected Inflation |
| Prices Paid (Kansas City Fed) |
| Prices Paid (Richmond Fed) |
| Cass Inferred Freight Rates |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | Apr 2023 | May 2023 | Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | -1.6% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | -0.2% | -1.3% | -1.2% | -1.4% | -1.7% | -1.0% | -1.0% |
| 66.3 | 68.4 | 65.6 | 52.3 | 44.5 | 48.0 | 45.9 | 38.1 | 39.3 | 32.7 | 33.0 | 28.6 | 28.6 | 24.4 | 18.5 | 22.3 | 27.6 | 27.6 |
| 86.4 | 73.7 | 78.6 | 64.3 | 55.5 | 39.6 | 48.6 | 50.5 | 50.5 | 33.0 | 45.0 | 41.9 | 33.0 | 34.9 | 22.0 | 16.7 | 25.2 | 25.8 |
| 75.7 | 71.6 | 61.6 | 51.6 | 47.1 | 39.7 | 44.0 | 39.3 | 36.3 | 24.5 | 26.5 | 23.5 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 20.8 | 20.8 |
| 57.2% | 45.8% | 44.1% | 39.2% | 48.3% | 28.2% | -0.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | -5.0% | -14.2% | -29.8% | -25.2% | -30.6% | -33.5% | -31.2% | -33.3% | -33.3% |
| 30.2% | 34.2% | 41.3% | 32.5% | 23.8% | 19.9% | 17.7% | 13.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.0% | -6.4% | -4.9% | -11.3% | -16.5% | -12.3% | -3.7% | -3.7% |
| 32.0% | 36.3% | 43.6% | 34.4% | 24.5% | 20.1% | 18.3% | 13.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 4.9% | -9.8% | -6.2% | -13.2% | -18.9% | -14.6% | -14.6% | -14.6% |
| 39.2% | 43.7% | 51.8% | 35.5% | 27.0% | 24.4% | 21.2% | 16.3% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 4.5% | -7.1% | -8.3% | -17.9% | -23.7% | -16.2% | -3.1% | -3.1% |
| 70.6% | 72.0% | 73.2% | 56.6% | 46.4% | 32.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 2.7% | -12.3% | -28.8% | -26.2% | -33.9% | -36.8% | -30.6% | -19.0% | -19.0% |
| 74.6% | 82.7% | 84.0% | 47.7% | 41.8% | 34.1% | 23.3% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 3.0% | -9.9% | -20.6% | -22.1% | -37.6% | -41.3% | -28.4% | -18.9% | -18.9% |
| $101.78 | $109.55 | $114.84 | $101.62 | $93.67 | $84.26 | $87.55 | $84.37 | $76.44 | $78.12 | $76.83 | $73.28 | $79.45 | $71.58 | $70.25 | $76.07 | $81.39 | $81.39 |
| $4.11 | $4.44 | $4.93 | $4.56 | $3.98 | $3.70 | $3.81 | $3.69 | $3.21 | $3.34 | $3.39 | $3.42 | $3.60 | $3.56 | $3.57 | $3.60 | $3.84 | $3.84 |
| 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| 9.8% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 16.2% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 15.1% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 11.9% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | -0.8% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 20.3% | 15.7% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 13.0% | 9.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | -3.5% | -4.1% | -8.2% | -9.2% | -5.8% | -7.7% | -7.7% |
| 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% |
| 77.0 | 67.0 | 66.0 | 42.0 | 40.0 | 42.0 | 29.0 | 25.0 | 18.0 | 20.0 | 26.0 | 30.0 | 32.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| 12.1% | 15.3% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 |
Commentary Directory
- Q1 GDP Growth Jumps 1.1% on Strong Personal Consumption
- A Strong March Leads to a Surge in Chinese GDP in Q1 2023
- Durable Goods Retail Sales Suffer from High Interest Rates and Wary Consumers
- Choppy GDP Means UK Should Avoid Q1 Recession
- Japanese Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level in Over a Year
- The End of Summer Sees the End of Disinflation in Europe
- Labor Market Indicators are Starting to Unify on Easing in Hiring
- Inflation and Tight Financial Conditions Weigh on the German Consumer
- Euro Area Money Supply Contracts for the First Time Since 2010
- Dismal Economic Data Out of Germany
- Core Durable Goods New Orders See Gentle Uptrend in July
- More UK Data Pointing to Q3 Decline
- Whispers of a UK Contraction in Q3
- Japan's Core Inflation Resumes Uptrend in July
- Early July Economic Data Leads to a Sharp Increase in Q3 Growth Expectations
- UK CPI: Energy Inflation Crashes but Services Inflation is Still Sticky
- China's Weak Start to Q3 Means More PBoC Easing
- Bank of Japan is Too Optimistic on Inflation
- The Bank of England Pauses in a Near Split Decision
- UK Inflation August Update: A Precursor to the Bank of England's Announcement
- Housing Starts Tumble in August Amid Rising Mortgage Rates
- US Retail Sales Grow at Fastest Monthly Rate Since the Start of the Year
- US Consumer Prices Surge in August Driven by Energy Costs
- August NFIB Survey Showed a Tough Environment for Small Businesses
- All Signs Point to a Weaker Labor Market in August
- Thoughts on GME and This Week in the Stock Market
- Record Home Price Levels Point to Strength in Post-Pandemic Economy
- The Stock Market Looks Overvalued, but It's Probably Not
- China GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations
- President-elect Joe Biden Introduces His "American Rescue Plan"
- Political Polarization Intensifies with Another Impeachment Along Party Lines
- Metal Demand Has a Bright Future in 2021 and Beyond
- What Happened to That US-China Trade Dispute?
- Civil Unrest, A Rising Threat to the 2021 Economy
- What's in the $900 Billion Relief Plan?
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