Inflation Barometer

Tracking US inflation indicators

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Indicator Feb 2021 Mar 2021 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022 Mar 2022 Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022
Core CPI 1.3% 1.7% 3.0% 3.8% 4.4% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.4% 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9%
Core PCE Price Index 1.5% 2.0% 3.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% 5.3% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8%
Core PPI 2.5% 3.0% 4.5% 5.3% 5.8% 6.4% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 8.0% 8.7% 8.7% 8.9% 9.5% 8.7% 8.5% 8.3% 8.3%
Core Sticky CPI 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.7% 5.0% 5.4% 5.6%
Core Import Price Index 3.0% 3.8% 5.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.1% 5.3% 4.8% 5.2% 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 6.8% 7.3% 6.9% 5.5% 4.4% 4.4%
Core Export Price Index 3.5% 5.3% 7.3% 8.6% 9.0% 8.8% 8.2% 7.6% 8.1% 8.5% 8.2% 7.6% 8.0% 7.6% 7.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1%
Prices Paid (Dallas Fed) 60.2 70.3 75.0 83.1 82.8 77.2 79.5 83.2 77.9 84.5 73.7 66.9 77.3 77.7 67.2 69.2 66.6 53.1
Prices Paid (NY Fed) 57.8 64.4 74.7 83.5 79.8 76.8 76.1 75.7 78.7 83.0 80.2 76.7 76.6 73.8 86.4 73.7 78.6 64.3
Prices Paid (Philadelphia Fed) 55.2 72.6 69.1 76.8 80.7 69.7 71.2 67.3 70.3 80.0 66.1 72.5 69.3 81.0 84.6 78.9 64.5 52.2
IMF Global Commodities Price Index 26.7% 50.7% 72.7% 69.8% 60.8% 60.3% 50.1% 59.0% 73.1% 59.0% 48.5% 39.0% 44.7% 70.7% 56.5% 45.7% 45.7% 45.7%
CPI: Energy 2.3% 13.3% 24.9% 28.0% 24.5% 23.8% 25.1% 24.9% 29.8% 33.1% 29.4% 27.0% 25.7% 32.2% 30.2% 34.4% 41.5% 32.9%
PCEPI: Energy 1.9% 13.3% 24.3% 27.3% 24.2% 23.6% 24.8% 24.9% 29.0% 31.4% 29.0% 26.0% 25.8% 34.0% 30.4% 35.6% 43.5% 43.5%
PPI: Energy 6.1% 23.2% 47.7% 44.5% 35.6% 33.3% 33.2% 36.9% 43.0% 42.9% 32.4% 31.8% 33.8% 37.2% 39.8% 44.2% 54.1% 54.1%
Import Price Index: Fuels 6.4% 56.4% 130.7% 113.1% 85.3% 65.6% 56.1% 69.8% 90.6% 87.0% 60.9% 58.4% 57.9% 72.3% 70.6% 72.6% 73.9% 73.9%
Export Price Index: Fuels 9.5% 33.6% 89.9% 99.6% 69.1% 72.4% 70.0% 77.2% 98.2% 94.7% 59.4% 61.4% 67.0% 73.7% 73.2% 83.6% 82.8% 82.8%
Monthly WTI Price $59.04 $62.33 $61.72 $65.17 $71.38 $72.49 $67.73 $71.65 $81.48 $79.15 $71.71 $83.22 $91.64 $108.50 $101.78 $109.55 $114.84 $101.62
Monthly Regular Gasoline $2.50 $2.81 $2.86 $2.98 $3.06 $3.14 $3.16 $3.17 $3.29 $3.40 $3.31 $3.31 $3.52 $4.22 $4.11 $4.44 $4.93 $4.56
CPI: Food 3.6% 3.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.4% 3.7% 4.6% 5.3% 6.1% 6.3% 7.0% 7.9% 8.8% 9.4% 10.1% 10.4% 10.9%
PCEPI: Food 3.3% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.9% 2.4% 2.8% 4.1% 4.7% 5.5% 5.7% 6.6% 8.0% 9.2% 10.0% 11.0% 11.2% 11.2%
PPI: Foods 4.4% 5.0% 7.3% 4.4% 10.6% 10.2% 12.9% 13.3% 10.7% 12.0% 13.2% 13.3% 14.0% 16.2% 16.2% 13.9% 13.0% 13.0%
Import Price Index: Foods 0.6% 3.8% 8.0% 5.9% 8.2% 9.9% 9.9% 10.2% 11.2% 13.6% 13.7% 15.4% 15.7% 13.6% 11.9% 11.5% 8.7% 8.7%
Export Price Index: Foods 14.9% 20.0% 24.8% 33.1% 33.7% 29.1% 33.1% 27.3% 24.0% 20.5% 20.2% 17.3% 17.7% 20.1% 20.3% 15.9% 13.4% 13.4%
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6%
UMich Inflation Expectations 3.3% 3.1% 3.4% 4.6% 4.2% 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%
1-Year Expected Inflation 1.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 4.2% 3.3%
10-Year Expected Inflation 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2%
Prices Paid (Kansas City Fed) 65.0 74.0 79.0 88.0 82.0 80.0 80.0 78.0 81.0 77.0 67.0 64.0 64.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0 81.0
Prices Paid (Richmond Fed) 4.9% 5.9% 7.0% 9.4% 8.6% 11.2% 11.1% 14.0% 13.0% 12.3% 14.0% 14.3% 12.3% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1% 11.1%
Cass Inferred Freight Rates 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

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