Reports

3/26/2025 - Q1 2025

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Dallas Fed Energy Survey: Q1 2025

Oil and gas sector activity increased slightly in Q1 2025, with the Dallas Fed Energy Survey business activity index dipping from 6.0 in Q4 2024 to 3.8.

• Company outlook index fell 12 pts to -4.9, while the outlook uncertainty index jumped 21 pts to 43.1.
• Oil production index rose from 1.1 in Q4 to 5.6 in Q1, and natural gas production turned positive, up from -3.5 to 4.8.
• Input costs for oilfield services firms increased, with the input cost index rising from 23.9 to 30.9. Lease operating expenses index also rose sharply, from 25.6 to 38.7.
• Aggregate employment index edged down to 0, indicating no net employment change, while wages and benefits index held at 21.6.

• Respondents expect WTI oil prices at $68 per barrel by year-end 2025 (range: $50–$100) and Henry Hub natural gas prices at $3.78/MMBtu.

• Firms need $65 per barrel on average to profitably drill, higher than the $64-per-barrel price when this question was asked in last year’s first-quarter survey. </aside>

1/2/2025 - Q4 2024

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Dallas Fed Energy Survey: Q4 2024

The Dallas Fed Energy Survey indicates much better energy business activity in Q4 2024 over Q3 2024 with the index reading up 11.9 pts to 6.0. Additionally, companies’ outlooks improved significantly with that index up 19.2 pts to 7.1. In the final quarter of the year, capital expenditures and employment were both increasing marginally but increasing nonetheless. Both exploration & production firms and energy services firms saw improvements in business activity with the former index up 8.0 pts to 8.0 and the latter index up 20.3 pts to 2.2.

On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $71 per barrel at year-end 2025; responses ranged from $53 to $100 per barrel. When asked about longer-term expectations, respondents on average expect a WTI oil price of $74 per barrel two years from now and $80 per barrel five years from now. The one-year out price forecast is slightly lower than the $73 that was seen in the Q3 2024 survey.

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