Airbus, Boeing: Long-Term Aerospace Industry Growth Outlook
Last year, Boeing and Airbus published market outlooks through the year 2036. In their report, Boeing described the industries long-term demand as “robust” with an average annual passenger growth of 4.7 percent over the next 20 years while Airbus forecasted a 4.4 percent rate of growth. Boeing noted that over the next two decades China’s fast growth will make it the largest domestic market in the world while the rest of Asia will become the largest market for travel.
Expected new deliveries by Airbus in the next 20-years fall just short of the 35,000 mark. With an existing produced fleet of just 18,890 aircraft as of Q1 2017, this growth appears substantial. Airbus is expecting to replace 12,936 aircraft in their fleet by 2036 and is expecting new growth to reach 21,230. Boeing is forecasting new deliveries to more than double over the next two decades. In order to meet the demand, they are forecasting a need for over 41,000 new deliveries. This will accommodate their expected growth and replacements over the next 20 years.
The aerospace industry is one that refuses to quit. While growth forecasts are up across the board, we can expect strong profits from all aerospace manufacturers. Boeing has the added benefit of holding a large stake of the aircraft used by the United States military on top of their civilian manufacturing needs. With an ever-expanding military budget, as well as no foreseeable end to the military industrial complex, growth in this sector will most likely maintain is a profitable path.